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THE EDGE REPORT by AndActionBTB | November 3–7, 2026

One explosive play can rewrite an entire Saturday. Week 10 brings 63 FBS matchups from Tuesday MACtion to Saturday's heavyweight clashes. Below is our complete game-by-game scouting guide and featured Vanderbilt moneyline selection. Tuesday's two games remain here even though they receive separate extended coverage.

BYU at Utah (noon ET): A top-10 Holy War where explosive-play prevention and red-zone finishing could determine the result.

Alabama at LSU (3:30 PM ET): A ranked SEC clash that demands discipline on early downs and composure in a hostile environment.

Oregon at Ohio State (3:30 PM ET): Can the defense limit explosive gains without conceding easy completions underneath?

Miami at Notre Dame (7:30 PM ET): An elite prime-time matchup where protection, turnovers and finishing drives loom large.

Georgia at Ole Miss (7:30 PM ET): The critical test is whether Ole Miss can sustain drives against Georgia's defense while limiting short fields.

Vanderbilt ML +130 | 1U
Projected score: Vanderbilt 27, Mississippi State 24.
Potential profit: +1.30U.

Vanderbilt enters off a bye with additional preparation time. Mississippi State faces significant quarterback attrition, while Vanderbilt's defense and ability to run the ball support the outright-upset case. The Commodores are our selection at the quoted +130 price.

7:00 PM ET — Ohio (-625) at Akron (+455) | Akron +14.5 | O/U 51.5
Projected score: Ohio 32, Akron 20
Matchup trend: Ohio has won five straight; Akron has lost six straight. Ohio converts 49% of third downs versus Akron's 38.6% third-down rate allowed.
Ohio — advantage: The Bobcats average 192.4 rushing yards per game (29th nationally), facing an Akron defense allowing 185.6 rushing yards per game (118th). Ohio's ground game is positioned to control possessions.
Akron — vulnerability: The Zips allow 32.8 points per game (128th nationally) and have a minus-eight turnover margin, creating short-field risk against Ohio.

8:00 PM ET — Buffalo (+190) at Miami (Ohio) (-230) | Miami (Ohio) -6 | O/U 44.5
Projected score: Buffalo 25, Miami (Ohio) 25
Matchup trend: Buffalo has won three straight but has not won at Miami (Ohio) since 2015; the Bulls are 3-11 all-time at Yager Stadium.
Buffalo — advantage and challenge: Messiah Burch has rushed for 100-plus yards in five consecutive games, but Miami allows only 94.9 rushing yards per game (14th nationally). Buffalo's ground-game strength faces Miami's strongest defensive unit.
Miami (Ohio) — vulnerability: The RedHawks allow 269.9 passing yards per game (129th nationally), creating a potential opening for Buffalo through the air, although the Bulls average only 154.6 passing yards per game.

7:00 PM ET — Ball State (+130) at UMass (-155) | UMass -3 | O/U 49.5
Projected score: Ball State 22, UMass 31
Matchup trend: Ball State has won two straight, while UMass has lost four straight.
Ball State — Advantage: The Cardinals average 337.5 total yards per game.
UMass — Advantage: The Minutemen allow 21.1 points per game, compared with 35.3 allowed by Ball State.

7:00 PM ET — Toledo (-2800) at Sacramento State (+1300) | Sacramento State +25.5 | O/U 52.5
Projected score: Toledo 36, Sacramento State 19
Matchup trend: Toledo averages 213.3 rushing yards per MAC game, compared with Sacramento State's 93.8 rushing yards per game.
Toledo — Advantage: The Rockets average 31.5 points per MAC game.
Sacramento State — Vulnerability: The Hornets allow 193.4 rushing yards per game.

7:30 PM ET — Central Michigan (+100) at Eastern Michigan (-120) | Eastern Michigan -1.5 | O/U 44.5
Projected score: Central Michigan 23, Eastern Michigan 27
Matchup trend: Central Michigan has lost three straight; both offenses average fewer than 22 points per game.
Central Michigan — Advantage: The Chippewas allow 180.1 passing yards per game.
Eastern Michigan — Advantage: The Eagles allow 136.4 rushing yards per game.

7:30 PM ET — UTSA (-265) at Florida Atlantic (+215) | Florida Atlantic +7 | O/U 72.5
Projected score: UTSA 35, Florida Atlantic 30
Matchup trend: UTSA averages 184.6 rushing yards per game against an FAU defense allowing 256.0, a 71.4-yard mismatch.
UTSA — Advantage: The Roadrunners average 33.5 points per game and own a plus-seven turnover margin.
Florida Atlantic — Advantage and vulnerability: The Owls average 329.4 passing yards per game but allow 35.8 points per game.

8:00 PM ET — James Madison (-650) at Southern Miss (+470) | Southern Miss +14.5 | O/U 58.5
Projected score: James Madison 36, Southern Miss 21
Matchup trend: JMU rushes for 202.0 yards per game against a Southern Miss defense allowing 223.4 rushing yards per game.
James Madison — Advantage: The Dukes score 39.1 points per game and allow 18.9.
Southern Miss — Vulnerability: The Golden Eagles convert 30.9% of third downs and allow 31.0 points per game.

7:00 PM ET — Virginia Tech (+185) at SMU (-225) | SMU -6 | O/U 56.5
Projected score: Virginia Tech 26, SMU 28
Matchup trend: SMU throws for 320.4 yards per game, but Virginia Tech allows only 218.0 passing yards per game.
Virginia Tech — Advantage: The Hokies allow 93.4 rushing yards and 20.5 points per game.
SMU — Advantage: The Mustangs average 467.2 total yards per game, including 320.4 through the air.

7:30 PM ET — South Florida (+105) at East Carolina (-125) | East Carolina -1.5 | O/U 39.5
Projected score: South Florida 25, East Carolina 18
Matchup trend: South Florida's defense allows 14.5 points per game, compared with East Carolina's offense averaging 24.0 points per game.
South Florida — Advantage: The Bulls hold opponents to 178.4 passing yards per game and carry a plus-five turnover margin.
East Carolina — Vulnerability: The Pirates convert only 31.2% of third downs and carry a minus-two turnover margin. Sustaining drives and protecting possessions are their primary concerns against USF's defense.

8:00 PM ET — Nebraska (-198) at Illinois (+164) | Illinois +4.5 | O/U 50.5
Projected score: Nebraska 32, Illinois 22
Matchup trend: Nebraska allows 15.6 points per game versus Illinois's 24.2, an 8.6-point defensive gap.
Nebraska — Advantage: The Cornhuskers hold opponents to 91.1 rushing yards per game.
Illinois — Advantage: The Illini convert 44.7% of third downs, a path to extending possessions.

9:00 PM ET — New Mexico (-395) at Nevada (+310) | Nevada +9.5 | O/U 38.5
Projected score: New Mexico 27, Nevada 21
Matchup trend: New Mexico has a plus-17 turnover margin while Nevada is minus-13, a 30-turnover differential.
New Mexico — Advantage: The Lobos allow just 11.9 points and 81.6 rushing yards per game.
Nevada — Vulnerability: The Wolf Pack average 23.0 points per game and have a minus-13 turnover margin.

10:15 PM ET — TCU (+270) at Arizona (-340) | Arizona -8.5 | O/U 43.5
Projected score: TCU 18, Arizona 26
Matchup trend: Arizona gains 455.6 yards per game against a TCU defense allowing 287.6, making offensive efficiency against a strong defense decisive.
TCU — Advantage: The Horned Frogs allow only 14.1 points and 174.6 passing yards per game.
Arizona — Advantage: The Wildcats average 322.0 passing yards and convert 52.4% of third downs.

12:00 PM ET — BYU (+170) at Utah (-205) | Utah -5.5 | O/U 48.5
Projected score: BYU 21, Utah 27
Matchup trend: Both defenses allow fewer than 19 points per game: Utah 15.9 and BYU 18.8. Red-zone execution could outweigh raw yardage.
BYU — Advantage: The Cougars allow only 100.0 rushing yards per game, giving them a counter to Utah's ground attack.
Utah — Advantage: The Utes average 226.9 rushing yards per game and 38.9 points per game.

12:00 PM ET — Texas (-148) at Missouri (+124) | Missouri +2.5 | O/U 43.5
Projected score: Texas 26, Missouri 23
Matchup trend: Both defenses rank among the SEC's five stingiest in points allowed: Texas 17.1 and Missouri 18.4 per game.
Texas — Advantage: The Longhorns allow just 17.1 points per game, fourth-best in the SEC.
Missouri — Advantage: The Tigers allow 18.4 points per game and are 4-0 at home this season.

12:00 PM ET — UCLA (-218) at Minnesota (+180) | Minnesota +5.5 | O/U 39.5
Projected score: UCLA 28, Minnesota 18
Matchup trend: UCLA scores 33.5 points per game but Minnesota allows only 178.9 passing yards per game; passing efficiency is a central matchup.
UCLA — Advantage: The Bruins allow only 13.4 points per game and hold opponents to 173.5 passing yards.
Minnesota — Advantage: The Golden Gophers hold opponents to 178.9 passing yards per game, limiting explosive plays through the air.

12:00 PM ET — Tulsa (-122) at Tulane (+102) | Tulane +1.5 | O/U 49.5
Projected score: Tulsa 26, Tulane 24
Matchup trend: Tulsa scores 29.8 points per game versus Tulane's 22.5, a 7.3-point offensive production gap.
Tulsa — Advantage: The Golden Hurricane average 29.8 points per game through eight contests.
Tulane — Vulnerability: The Green Wave average 22.5 points per game, 7.3 fewer than Tulsa, increasing the importance of defensive stops.

12:00 PM ET — Clemson (-142) at Syracuse (+120) | Syracuse +2.5 | O/U 50.5
Projected score: Clemson 25, Syracuse 25
Matchup trend: Syracuse averages 31.4 points per game versus Clemson's 23.3, but Clemson allows only 21.6 points per game.
Clemson — Advantage: The Tigers allow 21.6 points per game, compared with Syracuse's 26.4 allowed.
Syracuse — Advantage: The Orange average 31.4 points per game and 161.0 rushing yards per game.

12:00 PM ET — Florida State (-270) at Boston College (+220) | Boston College +7 | O/U 51.5
Projected score: Florida State 28, Boston College 28
Matchup trend: Florida State scores 30.6 points per game against a Boston College defense allowing 26.5; BC's 21.6-point offense faces a Florida State defense allowing 28.9.
Florida State — Advantage: The Seminoles average 30.6 points per game and 165.8 rushing yards per game.
Boston College — Advantage: The Eagles average 168.1 rushing yards per game, slightly more than Florida State's 165.8.

12:00 PM ET — North Carolina (-270) at UConn (+220) | UConn +7 | O/U 54.5
Projected score: North Carolina 25, UConn 28
Matchup trend: UConn gains 439.6 yards per game compared with North Carolina's 344.6, a 95-yard offensive gap.
North Carolina — Advantage: The Tar Heels allow 23.0 points per game and score on 93.1% of red-zone opportunities.
UConn — Advantage: The Huskies average 34.4 points and 192.8 rushing yards per game.

12:00 PM ET — Iowa State (+295) at Baylor (-375) | Baylor -10 | O/U 50.5
Projected score: Iowa State 21, Baylor 27
Matchup trend: Baylor allows 99.4 rushing yards per game against an Iowa State offense averaging 176.6; the ground-game clash will affect third-down distance.
Iowa State — Advantage: The Cyclones average 176.6 rushing yards per game, providing a potential ball-control path.
Baylor — Advantage: The Bears allow only 15.3 points and 99.4 rushing yards per game.

12:30 PM ET — Duke (-198) at NC State (+164) | NC State +4.5 | O/U 51.5
Projected score: Duke 29, NC State 21
Matchup trend: Duke allows 28.5 points per game while NC State averages 30.4; the Wolfpack offense has a potential scoring matchup.
Duke — Advantage: The Blue Devils convert 46.1% of third downs, helping sustain possessions.
NC State — Advantage: The Wolfpack average 30.4 points and 279.8 passing yards per game.

12:30 PM ET — Maryland (+200) at Purdue (-245) | Purdue -6.5 | O/U 57.5
Projected score: Maryland 29, Purdue 34
Matchup trend: Maryland allows 30.6 points per game and Purdue allows 29.1; both defenses offer opportunities for sustained scoring drives.
Maryland — Advantage: The Terrapins average 248.1 passing yards per game, giving them a route to attack Purdue's secondary.
Purdue — Advantage: The Boilermakers average 31.2 points per game, exceeding Maryland's 25.7.

12:45 PM ET — Arkansas (+320) at Auburn (-410) | Auburn -10.5 | O/U 52.5
Projected score: Arkansas 22, Auburn 27
Matchup trend: Auburn allows 20.1 points per game compared with Arkansas's 31.8, a defensive gap of 11.7 points.
Arkansas — Advantage: The Razorbacks average 192.7 rushing yards per game.
Auburn — Advantage: The Tigers allow 113.4 rushing yards and 20.1 points per game.

1:00 PM ET — Oklahoma State (-218) at Kansas State (+180) | Kansas State +4.5 | O/U 61.5
Projected score: Oklahoma State 31, Kansas State 27
Matchup trend: Oklahoma State scores 34.1 points per game against a Kansas State defense allowing 29.4, suggesting an offense-versus-defense mismatch.
Oklahoma State — Advantage: The Cowboys average 34.1 points and 449.3 total yards per game.
Kansas State — Advantage: The Wildcats convert 46.4% of third downs, helping them sustain possessions.

1:00 PM ET — Old Dominion (+225) at Coastal Carolina (-278) | Coastal Carolina -7 | O/U 43.5
Projected score: Old Dominion 21, Coastal Carolina 26
Matchup trend: Coastal Carolina scores 29.6 points per game versus Old Dominion's 23.8, a 5.8-point scoring advantage.
Old Dominion — Advantage: The Monarchs average 226.7 passing yards per game, providing a potential route to exploit coverage.
Coastal Carolina — Advantage: The Chanticleers average 29.6 points and 174.8 rushing yards per game.

2:30 PM ET — Georgia State (+164) at App State (-198) | App State -5.5 | O/U 55.5
Projected score: Georgia State 29, App State 27
Matchup trend: Georgia State converts 43.9% of third downs, while App State's defense allows 36.1%; sustaining drives is a key matchup.
Georgia State — Advantage: The Panthers average 438.1 total yards and 199.6 rushing yards per game.
App State — Advantage: The Mountaineers allow 127.6 rushing yards per game and have intercepted 10 passes.

3:00 PM ET — Texas A&M (+235) at South Carolina (-290) | South Carolina -7 | O/U 51.5
Projected score: Texas A&M 27, South Carolina 28
Matchup trend: South Carolina rushes for 217.5 yards per game, but Texas A&M allows only 132.5 rushing yards per game.
Texas A&M — Advantage: The Aggies allow 18.9 points and 182.5 passing yards per game.
South Carolina — Advantage: The Gamecocks average 36.9 points and 464.1 total yards per game.

3:00 PM ET — UL Monroe (+500) at Arkansas State (-700) | Arkansas State -14.5 | O/U 53.5
Projected score: UL Monroe 24, Arkansas State 31
Matchup trend: Arkansas State allows 194.9 rushing yards per game, while UL Monroe averages 121.8 rushing yards per game.
UL Monroe — Vulnerability: The Warhawks allow 37.0 points and 222.5 rushing yards per game.
Arkansas State — Advantage: The Red Wolves average 242.5 passing yards and 28.8 points per game.

3:00 PM ET — Delaware (-130) at Kennesaw State (+110) | Kennesaw State +2.5 | O/U 55.5
Projected score: Delaware 28, Kennesaw State 24
Matchup trend: Delaware throws for 286.3 yards per game against a Kennesaw State defense allowing 221.3 passing yards per game.
Delaware — Advantage: The Blue Hens average 29.1 points and 286.3 passing yards per game.
Kennesaw State — Advantage: The Owls allow 25.4 points per game and have held opponents to six passing touchdowns through eight games.

3:30 PM ET — Alabama (+185) at LSU (-225) | LSU -5.5 | O/U 52.5
Projected score: Alabama 27, LSU 29
Matchup trend: LSU averages 510.0 total yards per game versus Alabama's 411.9, a 98.1-yard difference.
Alabama — Vulnerability: Alabama's 411.9 total yards per game trail LSU's 510.0 by 98.1. The Crimson Tide face a production deficit if possessions are limited.
LSU — Advantage: LSU averages 510.0 yards and 40.1 points per game, giving the Tigers the stronger offensive production profile.

3:30 PM ET — Oregon (+225) at Ohio State (-278) | Ohio State -7 | O/U 46.5
Projected score: Oregon 19, Ohio State 32
Matchup trend: Ohio State averages 474.8 yards and 36.6 points per game versus Oregon's 425.4 yards and 33.3 points.
Oregon — Advantage: Oregon averages 285.0 passing yards per game with just three interceptions in 290 attempts; efficient ball security supports its upset path.
Ohio State — Advantage: Ohio State averages 315.3 passing yards per game at 10.1 yards per attempt, giving the Buckeyes a measurable downfield production edge.

3:30 PM ET — Cincinnati (+340) at Houston (-440) | Houston -11.5 | O/U 62.5
Projected score: Cincinnati 27, Houston 30
Matchup trend: Houston's 470.5 yards per game exceed Cincinnati's 455.4 by just 15.1, despite the double-digit point spread.
Cincinnati — Advantage: Cincinnati averages 6.91 yards per play, exceeding Houston's 6.69 and providing an efficiency edge despite being the underdog.
Houston — Advantage: Houston averages 470.5 total yards per game, 15.1 more than Cincinnati, supporting its ability to control offensive volume.

3:30 PM ET — Penn State (+102) at Washington (-122) | Washington -2.5 | O/U 44.5
Projected score: Penn State 26, Washington 22
Matchup trend: Penn State allows 18.6 points per game versus Washington's 21.1, a 2.5-point defensive difference.
Penn State — Advantage: Penn State allows 18.6 points per game, 2.5 fewer than Washington, providing the stronger scoring-defense profile.
Washington — Advantage: Washington averages 276.8 passing yards per game with 67.4% completions, creating an efficient passing attack.

3:30 PM ET — Marshall (+310) at Georgia Southern (-395) | Georgia Southern -10.5 | O/U 54.5
Projected score: Marshall 23, Georgia Southern 27
Matchup trend: Marshall must limit Georgia Southern's explosive gains to keep the game within one possession late.
Marshall — Advantage: The Thundering Herd's run game offers a way to shorten possessions and protect its defense.
Georgia Southern — Advantage: The Eagles' passing attack can stress coverage across the width of the field.

3:30 PM ET — Western Kentucky (-108) at Middle Tennessee (-112) | Middle Tennessee -1.5 | O/U 53.5
Projected score: Western Kentucky 23, Middle Tennessee 28
Matchup trend: A 1.5-point spread puts turnover margin and red-zone finishing at the center of the matchup.
Western Kentucky — Advantage: The Hilltoppers' passing-oriented offense can generate first downs without relying on long rushing gains.
Middle Tennessee — Advantage: The Blue Raiders can use their home-field setting and early-down rushing efficiency to keep WKU's offense off the field.

3:30 PM ET — Temple (+235) at Navy (-290) | Navy -7.5 | O/U 54.5
Projected score: Temple 28, Navy 29
Matchup trend: Temple's defense must maintain assignment discipline against Navy's option-based rushing attack.
Temple — Advantage: The Owls' passing game gives them an alternative to running into Navy's defensive front.
Navy — Advantage: The Midshipmen's option rushing scheme creates repeated opportunities to gain favorable down-and-distance.

3:30 PM ET — Charlotte (+300) at UAB (-380) | UAB -10 | O/U 47.5
Projected score: Charlotte 21, UAB 31
Matchup trend: Charlotte needs to avoid short fields against a UAB team favored by 10 points in a relatively low-total matchup.
Charlotte — Advantage: The 49ers can use ball control to reduce UAB's total possessions.
UAB — Advantage: The Blazers' offensive line can establish the run and create manageable third downs.

3:30 PM ET — Merrimack at Wake Forest | odds not offered
Matchup trend: Wake Forest's higher-level schedule and roster depth present a challenge for Merrimack; with no posted odds, no market-based comparison is available.
Merrimack — Vulnerability: The Warriors must sustain drives and avoid turnovers to limit Wake Forest's possessions.
Wake Forest — Advantage: The Demon Deacons can use their depth on both lines to control early downs.

3:45 PM ET — UCF (+120) at Kansas (-142) | Kansas -2.5 | O/U 48.5
Projected score: UCF 26, Kansas 27
Matchup trend: Kansas rushes for 202.1 yards per game, while UCF allows 126.3 rushing yards per game.
UCF — Advantage: UCF's +3 turnover margin exceeds Kansas's -5 by eight net takeaways, providing a possession advantage.
Kansas — Advantage: Kansas averages 446.1 total yards per game and allows only 177.9 passing yards per game, below UCF's 208.0 passing-yard production.

4:00 PM ET — Rice (+600) at North Texas (-900) | North Texas -16.5 | O/U 64.5
Projected score: Rice 26, North Texas 38
Matchup trend: North Texas gains 540.5 yards and scores 43.8 points per game; Rice allows 382.5 yards and 31.8 points.
Rice — Advantage: Rice rushes for 271.4 yards per game, fourth nationally, against a North Texas defense allowing 161.3 rushing yards.
North Texas — Advantage: North Texas averages 348.9 passing yards per game against a Rice defense allowing 207.5 passing yards; the Mean Green also convert 49.5% of third downs.

4:00 PM ET — Louisiana Tech (-198) at Troy (+164) | Troy +4.5 | O/U 47.5
Projected score: Louisiana Tech 25, Troy 22
Matchup trend: Louisiana Tech scores 32.6 points per game versus Troy's 23.0, a 9.6-point offensive difference.
Louisiana Tech — Advantage: Louisiana Tech owns a plus-eight turnover margin and allows 20.9 points per game, giving it possession and scoring-defense advantages.
Troy — Vulnerability: Troy converts only 32.2% of third downs, limiting its ability to sustain drives against a defense allowing 20.9 points per game.

4:00 PM ET — Missouri State (+170) at FIU (-205) | FIU -4.5 | O/U 49.5
Projected score: Missouri State 19, FIU 29
Matchup trend: FIU allows 304.9 total yards per game; Missouri State's defense allows 418.9, a 114.0-yard defensive difference.
Missouri State — Vulnerability: Missouri State allows 418.9 yards and 30.9 points per game, creating a field-position and scoring exposure.
FIU — Advantage: FIU holds opponents to 304.9 total yards and 180.4 passing yards per game, supporting its defensive edge.

4:00 PM ET — Northern Illinois (+310) at San José State (-395) | San José State -10 | O/U 51.5
Projected score: Northern Illinois 18, San José State 30
Matchup trend: Northern Illinois allows 37.6 points per game versus San José State's 22.3, a 15.3-point scoring-defense gap.
Northern Illinois — Vulnerability: Northern Illinois allows 218.8 rushing yards per game and opponents convert 59.6% of third downs, making defensive stops difficult.
San José State — Advantage: San José State allows 22.3 points per game and has a plus-two turnover margin versus Northern Illinois's minus-four.

4:15 PM ET — Vanderbilt (+130) at Mississippi State (-155) | Mississippi State -3 | O/U 48.5
Projected score: Vanderbilt 27, Mississippi State 24
Matchup trend: Vanderbilt passes for 236.6 yards per game against a Mississippi State defense allowing 261.5 passing yards.
Vanderbilt — Advantage: Vanderbilt's 236.6 passing yards per game target a Mississippi State defense conceding 261.5 through the air.
Mississippi State — Vulnerability: Mississippi State allows 261.5 passing yards per game, leaving its coverage exposed to Vanderbilt's passing attack.

4:15 PM ET — Rutgers (+600) at Wisconsin (-900) | Wisconsin -17.5 | O/U 45.5
Projected score: Rutgers 20, Wisconsin 32
Matchup trend: Wisconsin allows 102.0 rushing yards per game versus Rutgers's 149.4 rushing yards gained; Rutgers allows 194.4 rushing yards.
Rutgers — Vulnerability: Rutgers allows 194.4 rushing yards and 32.6 points per game, creating a defensive disadvantage.
Wisconsin — Advantage: Wisconsin allows only 102.0 rushing yards and 17.1 points per game, restricting Rutgers's ground-game route to scoring.

5:00 PM ET — South Alabama (+260) at Louisiana (-325) | Louisiana -8.5 | O/U 57.5
Projected score: South Alabama 29, Louisiana 32
Matchup trend: South Alabama rushes for 213.1 yards per game against Louisiana's defense allowing 127.0.
South Alabama — Advantage: South Alabama averages 213.1 rushing yards per game, providing a productive ground attack to test Louisiana.
Louisiana — Advantage: Louisiana allows 21.3 points and 317.3 yards per game, compared with South Alabama's defense allowing 32.8 points.

6:00 PM ET — Boise State (-950) at Colorado State (+625) | Colorado State +17.5 | O/U 68.5
Projected score: Boise State 41, Colorado State 28
Matchup trend: Boise State rushes for 222.8 yards per game against a Colorado State defense allowing 261.1 rushing yards.
Boise State — Advantage: Boise State converts 52.3% of third downs and averages 35.9 points per game, sustaining scoring drives.
Colorado State — Vulnerability: Colorado State allows 526.4 total yards and 42.4 points per game, including 261.1 rushing yards against Boise State's 222.8-yard rushing attack.

6:15 PM ET — Kentucky (+200) at Tennessee (-245) | Tennessee -6.5 | O/U 50.5
Projected score: Kentucky 24, Tennessee 28
Matchup trend: Tennessee allows 16.3 points and 288.5 total yards per game versus Kentucky's 24.8 points and 362.6 yards allowed. Tennessee's 213.0 rushing yards per game meet Kentucky's defense allowing 113.3 rushing yards.
Kentucky — Vulnerability: Kentucky allows opponents to convert 48.3% of third downs, a serious drive-extension weakness against Tennessee's 32.3-point-per-game offense.
Tennessee — Advantage: Tennessee allows just 16.3 points and 165.6 passing yards per game, giving the Volunteers a defensive advantage against Kentucky's offense averaging 219.4 passing yards.

7:00 PM ET — Sam Houston (+575) at Jacksonville State (-850) | Jacksonville State -16.5 | O/U 48.5
Projected score: Sam Houston 20, Jacksonville State 27
Matchup trend: Jacksonville State is 6-2 while Sam Houston is 1-7.
Sam Houston — Vulnerability: Sam Houston has lost seven of eight games, compared with Jacksonville State's two losses.
Jacksonville State — Advantage: Jacksonville State has won six of eight games, a 75% win rate compared with Sam Houston's 12.5%.

7:30 PM ET — Miami (+170) at Notre Dame (-205) | Notre Dame -5.5 | O/U 57.5
Projected score: Miami 29, Notre Dame 29
Matchup trend: Miami averages 47.6 points per game versus Notre Dame's 40.4. Notre Dame allows 13.4 points per game versus Miami's 17.8.
Miami — Advantage: Miami produces 534.9 yards per game, including 332.4 passing yards, to test Notre Dame's defense.
Notre Dame — Advantage: Notre Dame allows only 236.3 total yards and 13.4 points per game, giving it the stronger defensive profile.

7:30 PM ET — Georgia (-175) at Ole Miss (+145) | Ole Miss +3.5 | O/U 56.5
Projected score: Georgia 32, Ole Miss 27
Matchup trend: Georgia averages 41.0 points and 450.9 yards per game; Ole Miss scored 45 points against Auburn last week.
Georgia — Advantage: Georgia converts 51.6% of third downs, supporting an offense averaging 41.0 points per game.
Ole Miss — Advantage: Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss passed for 263 yards and rushed for 65 against Auburn, producing 328 yards himself.

7:30 PM ET — Louisville (-675) at Georgia Tech (+490) | Georgia Tech +14.5 | O/U 61.5
Projected score: Louisville 34, Georgia Tech 27
Matchup trend: Louisville averages 492.1 yards and 40.4 points per game against Georgia Tech's 2-6 season record.
Louisville — Advantage: Louisville rushes for 225.1 yards per game and averages 40.4 points, a productive ground attack.
Georgia Tech — Vulnerability: Georgia Tech is 2-6 through eight games, compared with Louisville's 5-3 record.

7:30 PM ET — Iowa (+114) at Northwestern (-135) | Northwestern -2.5 | O/U 45.5
Projected score: Iowa 20, Northwestern 26
Matchup trend: Both teams are 6-2 through eight games, so neither holds a season win-loss edge.
Iowa — Advantage: Iowa has six wins in eight games, a 75% win rate, despite traveling for this contest.
Northwestern — Advantage: Northwestern is also 6-2 with a 75% win rate and hosts the matchup.

7:30 PM ET — Michigan State (+410) at Michigan (-550) | Michigan -13.5 | O/U 39.5
Projected score: Michigan State 18, Michigan 23
Matchup trend: Michigan allows 250.0 yards and 16.4 points per game; Michigan State averages 291.4 yards and 19.9 points.
Michigan State — Vulnerability: Michigan State rushes for only 110.1 yards per game against Michigan's defense allowing 99.4.
Michigan — Advantage: Michigan allows just 150.6 passing yards and 250.0 total yards per game.

7:30 PM ET — Colorado (+136) at Arizona State (-162) | Arizona State -3 | O/U 48.5
Projected score: Colorado 24, Arizona State 28
Matchup trend: Arizona State is 4-4 compared with Colorado's 3-5 after eight games.
Colorado — Vulnerability: Colorado has lost five of eight games, a 62.5% loss rate.
Arizona State — Advantage: Arizona State has four wins versus Colorado's three and hosts the contest.

7:30 PM ET — Air Force (+140) at Army (-166) | Army -3 | O/U 45.5
Projected score: Air Force 26, Army 28
Matchup trend: Air Force enters 6-2 against Army's 5-3; Air Force's Kemper Hodges rushed for 200 yards last week.
Air Force — Advantage: Kemper Hodges rushed for 200 yards and four touchdowns against UConn, showing the Falcons' ground-game ceiling.
Army — Vulnerability: Army conceded 49 points to Memphis in its most recent game, a concern against Air Force's option attack.

7:45 PM ET — Oklahoma (+195) at Florida (-238) | Florida -6 | O/U 44.5
Projected score: Oklahoma 27, Florida 28
Matchup trend: Florida enters 5-3 while Oklahoma is 4-4 after eight games.
Oklahoma — Vulnerability: Oklahoma has lost four of eight games, a 50% loss rate heading into a road contest.
Florida — Advantage: Florida has won five of eight games, a 62.5% win rate compared with Oklahoma's 50%.

8:00 PM ET — Liberty (-900) at New Mexico State (+600) | New Mexico State +16.5 | O/U 45.5
Projected score: Liberty 30, New Mexico State 16
Matchup trend: Liberty is 7-1 against New Mexico State's 3-5, a four-win difference.
Liberty — Advantage: Liberty has won seven of eight games, an 87.5% win rate.
New Mexico State — Vulnerability: New Mexico State has lost five of eight games, compared with Liberty's one loss.

9:30 PM ET — West Virginia (+600) at Texas Tech (-900) | Texas Tech -16.5 | O/U 65.5
Projected score: West Virginia 28, Texas Tech 36
Matchup trend: Texas Tech is 7-1 while West Virginia is 5-3 after eight games.
West Virginia — Vulnerability: West Virginia has three losses compared with Texas Tech's one, a weaker season-results profile.
Texas Tech — Advantage: Texas Tech has won seven of eight games and hosts a West Virginia team with five wins.

9:30 PM ET — Fresno State (-135) at Utah State (+114) | Utah State +2.5 | O/U 42.5
Projected score: Fresno State 25, Utah State 18
Matchup trend: Fresno State is 5-3 versus Utah State's 3-5, a two-win gap.
Fresno State — Advantage: Fresno State has won five of eight games, a 62.5% win rate.
Utah State — Vulnerability: Utah State has lost five of eight games, a 62.5% loss rate.

9:30 PM ET — Hawai'i (-345) at UTEP (+275) | UTEP +9.5 | O/U 48.5
Projected score: Hawai'i 31, UTEP 17
Matchup trend: Hawai'i is 2-6 versus UTEP's 1-7; UTEP scores 14.1 points per game.
Hawai'i — Advantage: Hawai'i has twice as many wins as UTEP and faces an offense averaging only 14.1 points.
UTEP — Vulnerability: UTEP produces only 253.8 total yards and 14.1 points per game.

10:30 PM ET — Texas State (+205) at Oregon State (-250) | Oregon State -6.5 | O/U 72.5
Projected score: Texas State 29, Oregon State 37
Matchup trend: Oregon State is 5-3 while Texas State is 4-4 after eight games.
Texas State — Vulnerability: Texas State has lost four of eight contests, compared with Oregon State's three losses.
Oregon State — Advantage: Oregon State has won five of eight games, a 62.5% win rate, and hosts the matchup.

10:30 PM ET — Wyoming (+190) at UNLV (-230) | UNLV -6 | O/U 48.5
Projected score: Wyoming 22, UNLV 23
Matchup trend: Both programs enter at 5-3 through eight games.
Wyoming — Advantage: Wyoming has won five of eight contests, a 62.5% win rate.
UNLV — Advantage: UNLV also owns five wins in eight contests and plays at home.

Disclaimer: This Week 10 matchup guide is for information and analysis. Projected scores are model estimates, not guarantees. Odds, lines, totals, and kickoff times can change. This analysis does not mean we recommend betting every game. Always check current lines and wager responsibly.

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