COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 9 PREVIEW

THE EDGE REPORT · OCTOBER 27–31, 2026

Wisconsin just held USC to seven. Colorado State hung 56 and still needed almost every bit of it. New Mexico keeps getting it done with defense. Now we get another full board, with several favorites priced for considerably more separation than I have on the scoreboard.

Arizona at Texas Tech, Northwestern at Oregon and Army at Memphis are among the games where I have the dog winning outright. The other side of the card is just as interesting: Indiana, Notre Dame and Texas are projected winners, but the spreads demand much more.

Here’s where we're looking and why.

All times ET. Lines below are the DraftKings snapshot from October 27, 5:57 a.m. ET. Projections are season-based; reported availability remains subject to confirmation. This is the preview board; final selections and stakes are separate.

Delaware -1.5 | 57.5
Our projection: Delaware 29, Western Kentucky 25

Delaware has the better scoring attack, but WKU's home-night record is the obstacle: 9–1 since 2024. We lean Delaware winning a competitive game. WKU needs its defense to hold up better than its season average suggests.

Delaware 4–3; WKU 4–3 ATS this season. Matchup notes

Missouri State -4.5 | 50.5
Our projection: Sam Houston 28, Missouri State 25

Missouri State is favored, but I have Sam Houston winning outright. The Bearkats' offense has struggled; Missouri State's defense gives it a chance to get going. Both teams are 1–4 over their last five, so neither brings much momentum. Best idea is to take Sam Houston +7.5. Move the line.

Sam Houston 3–4; Missouri State 3–4 ATS this season. Matchup notes

Middle Tennessee -2.5 | 51.5
Our projection: Kennesaw State 23.8, Middle Tennessee 24.1

There is almost nothing between these teams in our projection. Middle Tennessee has the better recent form, while Kennesaw has allowed fewer points. I'm keeping the decimals here because rounding both teams to 24 hides how close this really is.

Kennesaw State under 6–1 this season. Matchup notes

Jacksonville State -3.5 | 49.5
Our projection: Jacksonville State 26, New Mexico State 24

Jacksonville State has won four of five and owns the stronger scoring profile on both sides. New Mexico State gets this one at home, and our projected margin stays short of the spread. The Aggies need to keep this from turning into a game of traded touchdowns.

Jacksonville State over 5–2 this season. Matchup notes

North Texas -13.5 | 77.5
Our projection: Florida Atlantic 34, North Texas 39

Both teams have won four of five, and both defenses have allowed plenty. North Texas brings the bigger offense; FAU brings enough scoring to stay involved. At this total, I want to see which offense can finish drives without handing the other side short fields.

FAU over 6–1; North Texas over 6–1 this season. Matchup notes

James Madison -21 | 49.5
Our projection: Troy 21, James Madison 33

JMU has the stronger attack and defense, but our projection leaves Troy inside a three-touchdown spread. Troy's defense gives it a better chance than its 1–4 recent run suggests. Its reported quarterback uncertainty is the bigger concern.

Troy under 6–1 this season. Matchup notes

Tulane -10 | 46.5
Our projection: Tulane 30, Charlotte 22

Charlotte's defense is the opening for Tulane. The Green Wave's own offense has been modest, though, and our projected margin stays below double digits. Charlotte gets home field but needs a defensive performance considerably better than its season norm.

Tulane 3–4; Charlotte 3–4 ATS this season. Matchup notes

UCF -1.5 | 47.5
Our projection: Baylor 26, UCF 24

UCF gets the home field and the more productive offense. Baylor brings the better scoring defense, which is enough to put the Bears ahead in our projection. I see a close game with Baylor's ability to limit scoring carrying more weight than UCF's recent offensive ceiling. Does UCF have the upset hangover after knocking off BYU last weekend?

Baylor under 5–2 this season. Matchup notes

Kent State -10 | 46.5
Our projection: Kent State 24, Sacramento State 23

Kent State gets a defense it can attack, but its own scoring has been poor. Sacramento State has the same opportunity against Kent's defense and the benefit of playing at home. Our number barely separates them; laying ten asks for much more than that.

Sacramento State 2–6 ATS this season. Matchup notes

Texas Tech -3.5 | 54.5
Our projection: Arizona 28, Texas Tech 26

Arizona has won five straight and brings the better scoring defense. Texas Tech's offense is close enough to match it, and Lubbock matters, but I have the Wildcats winning. Arizona's receiver availability remains part of the final evaluation.

Arizona 3–4; Texas Tech 3–4 ATS this season. Matchup notes

NC State -7 | 56.5
Our projection: California 26, NC State 32

NC State has the stronger attack and a Cal defense that has allowed too much scoring. Cal's opportunity is on the other side: the Wolfpack have also been vulnerable. Offensive availability on both teams could determine whether this plays to the scoring averages.

Cal 2–6; NC State 2–5 ATS this season. Matchup notes

SMU -10 | 58.5
Our projection: SMU 31, Syracuse 26

SMU has the stronger attack and defense, but our margin is only five. Syracuse's offense has enough production to keep the game competitive in the dome. Its reported quarterback questions are the concern; SMU has its own running-back and kicker availability to sort through.

Syracuse over 5–2 this season. Matchup notes

Duke -7 | 47.5
Our projection: Boston College 20, Duke 27

Duke has the stronger scoring defense and the home field. Boston College has been competitive against the number, and Duke's reported kicker absence could matter in a game sitting around a touchdown. I have Duke winning with little separation from the spread.

Boston College under 5–2 this season. Matchup notes

Iowa -3.5 | 36.5
Our projection: Wisconsin 21, Iowa 22

Wisconsin brings four wins in five and a defense capable of making this uncomfortable. Iowa gets Kinnick and a slight advantage in both scoring measures. I have a one-point game, with the total sitting below the combined scoring in our projection.

Iowa under 5–2 this season. Matchup notes

Illinois -2.5 | 54.5
Our projection: Illinois 32, Maryland 27

Illinois gets a Maryland defense allowing more than 33 points per game. Maryland's home field and ability to score give it a response, but five straight losses make the case harder. Illinois' offensive depth and Maryland's quarterback availability still need to be settled.

Maryland over 6–1 this season. Matchup notes

Notre Dame -30.5 | 55.5 · Neutral site: Foxborough
Our projection: Notre Dame 35, Navy 22

Notre Dame has the clear advantage on both sides, but our projected margin is well short of the posted spread. Navy avoids a true road game in South Bend at the neutral site. To stay involved, it needs to protect possessions and make Notre Dame work for its scoring chances.

Navy 2–5 ATS this season. Matchup notes

South Florida -8.5 | 42.5
Our projection: UAB 19, South Florida 26

USF's defense is the strongest unit in this matchup. UAB's opening is a Bulls offense that has not consistently produced big scoring totals, with receiver availability also unsettled. I have USF winning, but the spread asks it to create more separation.

UAB under 6–1 this season. Matchup notes

Western Michigan -13.5 | 44.5
Our projection: Bowling Green 20, Western Michigan 28

Western Michigan has the better attack and defense. Bowling Green needs to keep the game within reach against a Broncos offense that has been more steady than explosive. Western Michigan's poor ATS record matters here because a stronger team has still struggled to deliver at the window.

Western Michigan 2–5 ATS this season. Matchup notes

Michigan -14 | 46.5
Our projection: Michigan 27, Rutgers 22

Michigan's defense has the advantage, while Rutgers has produced more scoring and gets the game at home. The problem for Rutgers is its own defense; the problem for Michigan is asking a modest offense to cover two touchdowns. Both teams have offensive availability questions.

Michigan under 6–1 this season. Matchup notes

Ole Miss -13.5 | 57.5
Our projection: Auburn 25, Ole Miss 30

Ole Miss has the higher-scoring offense and the home field. Auburn's slightly better scoring defense gives it a way to stay connected, but its lower offensive output leaves less room for empty possessions. I have the Rebels winning with Auburn inside the number.

Auburn 2–5 ATS this season. Matchup notes

Marshall -2.5 | 45.5
Our projection: Marshall 24, Old Dominion 23

Marshall has the better recent form, but its defense gives Old Dominion a chance. ODU gets home field and the tighter scoring defense; its limited offense and quarterback uncertainty are the obstacles. Our projection leaves almost no separation.

Old Dominion 1–7 ATS this season. Matchup notes

Kansas State -2.5 | 47.5
Our projection: Kansas State 32, Colorado 21

Kansas State has the better season profile on both sides. Colorado's home field and the Wildcats' reported quarterback-depth issues are the main counterarguments. I have Kansas State winning comfortably, with availability the issue to settle before getting aggressive.

Colorado 2–5 ATS this season. Matchup notes

Georgia State -6.5 | 57.5
Our projection: Coastal Carolina 26, Georgia State 31

Georgia State brings the stronger scoring attack and the home field. Coastal's chance is against a Panthers defense that has allowed almost as much scoring as its own. I have Georgia State winning, but Coastal needs only a few successful possessions to keep the spread relevant.

Georgia State over 5–2 this season. Matchup notes

Air Force -2.5 | 53.5
Our projection: UConn 28, Air Force 26

UConn has the better scoring attack; Air Force counters with the better defense, home field and four wins in five. Reported quarterback issues affect both sides. I have UConn narrowly ahead, which puts the road dog on the watchlist pending those confirmations.

UConn 5–1–1 ATS this season. Matchup notes

East Carolina -6 | 49.5
Our projection: Temple 26, East Carolina 27

East Carolina has the better recent form and gets this one at home. Temple's scoring production is slightly higher, but its quarterback and receiving availability complicate that advantage. Our projection is essentially a one-possession finish, short of ECU's six-point spread.

Temple 4–2–1 ATS this season. Matchup notes

Louisiana Tech -5.5 | 57.5
Our projection: Louisiana Tech 32, South Alabama 28

Louisiana Tech's defense is the difference in our projection. South Alabama has the higher-scoring offense and home field, but allowing more than 32 points per game creates the problem. I have Tech winning; getting past the posted margin still requires it to finish drives.

Louisiana Tech 6–1 ATS this season. Matchup notes

Louisville -22.5 | 61.5
Our projection: Stanford 24, Louisville 37

Louisville's attack gets a Stanford defense allowing 35.5 points per game. Stanford's opportunity comes against a Cardinals defense that has also surrendered scoring. I have Louisville comfortably ahead, with the spread leaving room for a late Stanford score to matter.

Louisville over 6–1 this season. Matchup notes

Georgia -11.5 | 55.5 · Neutral site: Atlanta
Our projection: Florida 28, Georgia 36

Georgia has the stronger defense and the higher-scoring offense. Florida has enough production to challenge that defense, but its own points allowed are the concern against this opponent. I have Georgia winning in Atlanta, with Florida inside the spread and more scoring than the posted total.

Georgia over 6–1 this season. Matchup notes

BYU -16.5 | 48.5
Our projection: Arizona State 25, BYU 32

BYU gets the home field and the stronger defense. Arizona State has enough offense to test the Cougars after their first loss, but its own defensive record makes sustained stops the issue. I have BYU winning, with a projected margin well below the posted spread.

BYU 6–1 ATS this season. Matchup notes

TCU -6 | 46.5
Our projection: Kansas 22, TCU 24

Kansas has the more productive offense. TCU's defense and home field pull the matchup back toward the Horned Frogs, but their modest scoring output makes separation difficult. I have TCU winning a close one; Kansas needs to avoid the mistakes that turn defensive games into short-field games.

TCU under 6–1 this season. Matchup notes

Indiana -20.5 | 42.5
Our projection: Minnesota 19, Indiana 27

Indiana has the stronger attack and an excellent scoring defense. Minnesota brings four wins in five and enough defensive resistance to make the large number interesting. Indiana's ATS record remains the tension: plenty of straight-up success, very few covers.

Indiana 1–7 ATS this season. Matchup notes

Oregon -3.5 | 47.5
Our projection: Northwestern 28, Oregon 25

Northwestern brings the better scoring defense and slightly higher offensive production. Oregon gets Autzen and an offense capable of answering. I have Northwestern winning outright; Oregon needs its defense to give it more than it has across the full season.

Northwestern 5–2; Oregon 2–5 ATS this season. Matchup notes

Utah State -6.5 | 63.5
Our projection: Colorado State 31, Utah State 29

Colorado State's offense is the attraction. Its defense is the problem. Utah State gets home field and the better defense, but a low-scoring attack has to take advantage of the Rams' concessions. I have Colorado State narrowly ahead in a game with sharply conflicting totals histories.

Colorado State over 7–0; Utah State under 6–1 this season. Matchup notes

North Dakota State -25.5 | 43.5
Our projection: UTEP 14, North Dakota State 33

North Dakota State has the clear advantage on both sides. I don't have a credible season-statistical strength to manufacture for UTEP here. The betting question is the margin: the Bison have been much better straight up than against the spread, and our projection stays below this number.

North Dakota State under 6–2 this season. Matchup notes

Liberty -14 | 45.5
Our projection: Florida International 17, Liberty 24

FIU's scoring defense gives it a chance to slow this down. Liberty has the stronger attack, home field and five wins in five, but building a two-touchdown margin still requires sustained offense. I have Liberty winning with FIU inside the spread.

Liberty under 5–2 this season. Matchup notes

Southern Miss -3.5 | 55.5
Our projection: Southern Miss 32, UL Monroe 26

Southern Miss gets a defense allowing more than 37 points per game. UL Monroe gets home field against a defense that has also struggled, so neither side has earned much trust. Southern Miss' reported quarterback absence adds uncertainty to a matchup our projection favors by six.

UL Monroe 2–5 ATS this season. Matchup notes

Utah -6.5 | 56.5
Our projection: Utah 32, Cincinnati 25

Utah brings five wins in five and the much stronger scoring defense. Cincinnati's productive offense and home field make this a real test. I have Utah winning by roughly a touchdown, putting the listed spread close to our projected margin.

Utah 6–1 ATS this season. Matchup notes

Wake Forest -12.5 | 49.5
Our projection: Virginia 24, Wake Forest 29

Wake Forest brings the stronger attack and four wins in five. Virginia's defense is nearly level with Wake's and gives the Cavaliers a way to keep the game tight. Virginia's offensive and kicker absences are the concern; our projection still leaves it inside the spread.

Wake Forest 5–2 ATS this season. Matchup notes

New Mexico -14.5 | 41.5
Our projection: New Mexico 30, San José State 16

New Mexico has the decisive scoring-defense advantage. San José State gets home field and has limited opponents better than its record might suggest, but generating offense against the Lobos is the harder assignment. I have New Mexico ahead by about two touchdowns, close to the posted spread.

San José State under 7–1 this season. Matchup notes

Oklahoma -5.5 | 44.5
Our projection: South Carolina 27, Oklahoma 23

South Carolina brings substantially more scoring production. Oklahoma gets home field and the stronger defense, but its offense leaves less margin for a poor quarter. I have the Gamecocks winning outright, with their reported line availability part of the final check.

Oklahoma under 5–2 this season. Matchup notes

Penn State -7.5 | 54.5
Our projection: Purdue 25, Penn State 31

Purdue has the higher-scoring offense; Penn State has the stronger defense and home field. Penn State's 1–4 run over its last five keeps me from treating that defensive advantage as a comfortable cover. I have the Nittany Lions winning by six.

Purdue over 6–1 this season. Matchup notes

UCLA -22.5 | 44.5
Our projection: Nevada 21, UCLA 28

UCLA has the stronger season profile and five straight wins. Nevada's potential opening is UCLA's reported quarterback absence, although Nevada has its own quarterback question. The Bruins' perfect ATS run meets a large spread that sits well above our projected margin.

UCLA 7–0 ATS this season. Matchup notes

Georgia Southern -5.5 | 56.5
Our projection: App State 27, Georgia Southern 24

App State has the higher-scoring offense. Georgia Southern gets home field and has been excellent against the spread, but its lower scoring output keeps the Mountaineers ahead in our projection. Quarterback availability on both sides is central to this one.

Georgia Southern 6–1 ATS this season. Matchup notes

Oklahoma State -8.5 | 57.5
Our projection: Oklahoma State 32, Iowa State 25

Oklahoma State brings the much stronger offense and a 4–1 recent run. Iowa State gets home field and has allowed nearly the same scoring as the Cowboys, giving it a chance if its offense contributes. I have Oklahoma State winning, with the spread slightly beyond our projected margin.

Oklahoma State 6–1 ATS this season. Matchup notes

Florida State -6 | 49.5
Our projection: Clemson 25, Florida State 26

Clemson brings the better scoring defense. Florida State gets the higher-scoring attack and Doak, but its running-back absences complicate that advantage. I have the Seminoles winning a tight game; Clemson's own quarterback absence makes the offensive matchup harder to settle.

Clemson 2–5 ATS this season. Matchup notes

San Diego State -2.5 | 48.5
Our projection: Washington State 28, San Diego State 27

San Diego State has the higher-scoring offense and home field. Washington State gets a defense allowing more than 36 points per game, which is the opening despite five straight losses. Our projection narrowly favors the Cougars; San Diego State's lengthy offensive availability list needs attention.

San Diego State over 6–2 this season. Matchup notes

Texas -21 | 50.5
Our projection: Mississippi State 25, Texas 29

Texas has the stronger scoring defense and the home field. Mississippi State has enough offensive production to challenge a three-touchdown spread, even with a defense that has allowed too much. I have Texas winning, with a much closer margin than the market is asking it to cover.

Texas 2–5 ATS this season. Matchup notes

Pittsburgh -7.5 | 54.5
Our projection: Georgia Tech 24, Pittsburgh 31

Pittsburgh has the stronger attack and defense. Georgia Tech's opening is Pitt's unresolved quarterback status; its own defense makes relying on a shootout difficult. I have Pitt winning by seven, leaving the hook relevant at the listed number.

Georgia Tech over 5–2 this season. Matchup notes

Miami -14.5 | 52.5
Our projection: Miami 35, North Carolina 20

Miami has the clear advantage in both scoring measures. North Carolina gets Chapel Hill and a defense allowing less than 21 points per game, giving it a chance to make Miami work. I have the Hurricanes winning by 15, putting our projected margin almost on the spread.

Miami over 6–1 this season. Matchup notes

Ohio State -6.5 | 51.5
Our projection: Ohio State 32, USC 23

Ohio State brings the much stronger scoring defense and five wins in five. USC gets the Coliseum and a productive offense, but its defensive performance and ATS record have lagged. The reported absence of Julian Sayin is the issue that must be resolved around Ohio State's offensive outlook.

Ohio State 5–2; USC 2–6 ATS this season. Matchup notes

Missouri -10 | 49.5
Our projection: Missouri 29, Arkansas 20

Missouri has the better attack and defense. Arkansas gets home field against a Tigers offense with several reported absences, but averaging 21 points makes a comeback harder to build. I have Missouri winning by nine, close to the posted ten.

Arkansas under 5–2 this season. Matchup notes

Nebraska -7.5 | 49.5
Our projection: Washington 22, Nebraska 29

Nebraska brings the stronger scoring profile and a 6–1 ATS record. Washington's opportunity is against a Nebraska front with reported absences, although the Huskies' own quarterback status remains unsettled. I have Nebraska winning by seven, making the hook the difference at this snapshot.

Nebraska 6–1 ATS this season. Matchup notes

Memphis -6 | 59.5
Our projection: Army 30, Memphis 29

Both teams have won four of five. Memphis gets home field and slightly more scoring production; Army has allowed fewer points. I have Army narrowly ahead, with its receiving availability the concern in a matchup that otherwise looks close.

Army over 5–2 this season. Matchup notes

Boise State -11.5 | 63.5
Our projection: Texas State 29, Boise State 32

Boise State brings five straight wins and the stronger defense. Texas State's offense has been more productive, giving the Bobcats a way to stay involved if they can get enough stops. I have Boise winning, but by far less than double digits.

Texas State over 5–2 this season. Matchup notes

UNLV -23.5 | 53.5
Our projection: Northern Illinois 19, UNLV 31

UNLV has the better offense, defense and home field. Northern Illinois' possible route is to contain a Rebels offense averaging only about 24 points, but its own defensive record makes that difficult. I have UNLV winning comfortably, short of the posted spread.

UNLV under 5–2 this season. Matchup notes

Oregon State -5.5 | 58.5
Our projection: Oregon State 32, Fresno State 25

Oregon State brings the much bigger offense and five wins in five. Fresno State has the better scoring defense and the home field, giving it the chance to make the Beavers earn their production. I have Oregon State winning by seven in the final game on the board.

Oregon State over 6–1 this season. Matchup notes

The bigger favorites create some of the widest disagreements on this board. We have plenty of them winning. We also have several dogs with enough scoring or defensive resistance to make those margins difficult.

Ohio State’s quarterback situation, the two sides of UConn–Air Force and the availability questions around App State–Georgia Southern deserve another look before the final card. I’ll keep the confirmed selections and stakes separate from the full preview.

We don’t need a bet on every game. We need a reason for every bet.

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Frank Meyer · AndActionBTB

Prepared from the Week 9 preview and its linked game logs. ESPN schedules and results · DraftKings snapshot and reported availability via Edge Labs · Season ATS records · Season totals records. Injury mentions reflect reported status, not confirmed starting roles. Kennesaw State–Middle Tennessee is shown to one decimal because the projection is nearly even.