THURSDAY · 8:15 PM ET | Projected score: New York Giants 25, Washington 22 | Market snapshot (home team): NYG ML -134 · Spread -2.5 · Total 41.5

New York has strengthened from -1.5 to -2.5 despite fairly even spread betting, with Washington taking slightly more tickets. The moneyline draws stronger Giants support, suggesting bettors are more comfortable with New York winning than winning comfortably. The Giants are 3–0 ATS against NFC East opponents and 2–0 ATS as favorites this season. Yet their first Washington meeting ended 27–27, and this is their second week in a row facing a divisional opponent after beating Philadelphia 19–11.

New York allows just 189.3 passing yards per game, making sustained drives a challenge for Washington. But the Giants surrender 3.4 sacks per game, giving the Commanders an opening to disrupt possessions and create favorable field position.

New York 25–22 gets the Giants home at −2.5, but there is little room for a mistake. The more interesting gap is on the total: 47 points against a line of 41.5. These teams traded scores in their first meeting; Washington needs to find that offense again against a much tougher passing defense.

Out / Injured reserve: Washington — Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Jeremy McNichols, Terry McLaurin, Dyami Brown, Jaylin Lane, Javon Kinlaw, Daron Payne, Leo Chenal. New York — Jaxson Dart, Tyrone Tracy Jr., Brian Burns, Tremaine Edmunds, Calvin Austin III, Braxton Berrios, Gunner Olszewski.

Questionable: Washington — Treylon Burks, Colson Yankoff. New York — Abdul Carter, Malik Harrison, Colton Hood.

Expected to play: Washington — Jayden Daniels, John Bates, Chig Okonkwo, Amik Robertson, Shy Tuttle. New York — J.J. McCarthy, Cam Skattebo, Malik Nabers, Darnell Mooney, Theo Johnson, Charlie Jones.

SUNDAY · 9:30 AM ET · MUNICH | Projected score: Detroit 27, New England 23 | Market snapshot (home team): DET ML −155 · Spread -2.5 · Total 51

New England attracts most spread tickets, but Detroit takes a much larger share of the money than its ticket count suggests. The move from Lions -1.5 to -2.5 therefore runs against the public’s preferred underdog. Recent results help explain Detroit’s appeal: the Lions have won four straight, while New England has missed four consecutive spreads and is 0–3 outright, 0–2–1 ATS against NFC opponents. The venue in Munich removes Detroit’s usual Ford Field advantage.

Detroit averages 2.71 points per drive to New England’s 2.13, and the Patriots allow opponents to complete 67.5% of their passes. The Lions have a path to keep the chains moving without needing a string of deep shots.

Detroit 27–23 gives us room at −2.5, where −125 offers a discount from the −155 moneyline. A field-goal win gets the job done. The under is drawing heavy support at 51, but our 50-point forecast leaves little room to work with.

Out / Injured reserve: New England — Romeo Doubs, Reggie Gilliam, Harold Landry III, Alijah Vera-Tucker. Detroit — Isiah Pacheco, Jack Campbell, Jimmy Rolder, Tom Kennedy, Avonte Maddox, Kendrick Law.

Doubtful: New England — Rhamondre Stevenson, Ben Brown.

Questionable: New England — A.J. Brown, TreVeyon Henderson, Carlton Davis III. Detroit — D.J. Reed, D.J. Wonnum.

SUNDAY · 1:00 PM ET | Projected score: Kansas City 25, Atlanta 19 | Market snapshot (home team): ATL ML +154 · Spread +3.5 · Total 45.5

Kansas City is the public’s preferred side on both the spread and moneyline, making the Chiefs a natural candidate for favorite-heavy parlays. Even so, the number has eased from -4.5 to -3.5. Atlanta has gained ground in the price without winning the popularity contest. Kansas City’s 6–2 outright record and 4–4 ATS mark capture the distinction: the Chiefs have been much more reliable winners than spread bets.

Kansas City’s 137.8 rushing yards per game give Atlanta more to defend than the passing attack alone. The Falcons need their own ground game to answer: long possessions would keep the Chiefs off the field and make it harder for the favorite to build a margin.

Kansas City 25–19 gives us room at −3.5, where a second-half scoring drive could turn a close game into a cover. The over is drawing the stronger support at 45.5, but our 44-point forecast leaves less to work with there. Both the 2020 and 2024 meetings stayed under, with the Chiefs winning by one possession.

Out / Injured reserve: Kansas City — Brashard Smith, Tyquan Thornton, L’Jarius Sneed, Josh Simmons. Atlanta — Brian Robinson Jr., Samson Ebukam, Jalon Walker, Michael Jerrell.

Questionable: Kansas City — Patrick Mahomes, Xavier Worthy, Omarr Norman-Lott, Mansoor Delane. Atlanta — Zachariah Branch.

SUNDAY · 1:00 PM ET | Projected score: Buffalo 28, New York Jets 22 | Market snapshot (home team): NYJ ML +355 · Spread +8.5 · Total 50.5

Buffalo attracts almost all the tracked moneyline action, putting a Jets upset on the radar as a potential parlay spoiler. The spread market is less one-sided: New York’s small ticket share comes with a larger share of the money. Buffalo has still strengthened from -7 to -8.5, supported by a 6–2 ATS season, a 3–1 road ATS record and five consecutive covers in this matchup. Backing the Jets means taking a better price against a strong recent favorite.

Buffalo averages 32 points per game to New York’s 20.2, so the Jets need more than their usual output to reach our 22-point forecast. They can still cover without matching Buffalo score for score, especially if the Bills protect a lead by running down the clock.

Buffalo 28–22 leaves the Jets inside +8.5, even if the Bills control the afternoon. That extra room matters if Buffalo starts draining the clock and New York finds a late score. The under has more tickets, while over bettors account for a larger share of the money than their numbers suggest. With 50 points against a total of 50.5, the spread is the more interesting price.

Out / Injured reserve: Buffalo — Joshua Palmer, Dorian Strong. New York Jets — Arian Smith, T’Vondre Sweat, David Onyemata, Braiden McGregor, Kiko Mauigoa.

Questionable: Buffalo — Tyrell Shavers, Christian Benford, Damar Hamlin. New York Jets — Garrett Wilson, Joseph Ossai, Trevin Wallace.

SUNDAY · 1:00 PM ET | Projected score: Indianapolis 23, Miami 22 | Market snapshot (home team): IND ML -194 · Spread -3.5 · Total 38

Indianapolis attracts the stronger spread support, while our one-point projected margin keeps Miami competitive at +3.5. The larger story is the total’s fall from 47.5 to 38. Over and under betting is fairly even now; the 9.5-point drop is the stronger signal. Five of the last six meetings finished under; six of Indianapolis’ last seven against AFC opponents went over. The head-to-head history favors lower scoring, while Indianapolis’ recent AFC games pull the other way.

Miami averages just 15.8 points, but Indianapolis allows 27.7. That is the opening for the Dolphins: turn a generous defense into sustained drives and keep their own defense from spending the afternoon on the field.

Indianapolis 23–22 makes Miami +3.5 worth a closer look: a field-goal Colts win still gets the Dolphins home. The same forecast reaches 45 against a total of 38. Both angles come back to Miami’s offense—if the Dolphins can sustain drives against this defense, they can stay close and push the scoring above a number the market has cut sharply.

Out / Injured reserve: Miami — Malik Willis, De’Von Achane, Zach Sieler. Indianapolis — Alec Pierce, Arden Key, Cam Taylor-Britt, D.J. Montgomery.

Questionable: Miami — Jaylen Wright. Indianapolis — Jaylon Carlies, Akeem Davis-Gaither, Justin Walley.

SUNDAY · 1:00 PM ET | Projected score: Minnesota 20, Green Bay 19 | Market snapshot (home team): GB ML -179 · Spread -3.5 · Total 41.5

The line opened at Green Bay -4.5 and has traded both above and below that opening number; the listed quote is -3.5. Green Bay attracts most spread tickets and an even greater share of the money. The Packers’ 5–0–1 ATS run over their last six supports that enthusiasm, although they are only 1–2–1 ATS as favorites this season. Minnesota’s response to its 23–6 loss to Buffalo was acquiring Kirk Cousins after Carson Wentz completed only eight passes.

Cousins knows Kevin O'Connell's system from their previous seasons together in Minnesota. He arrives with 2,340 passing yards, 20 touchdowns and eight interceptions in nine starts this season. That familiarity could reduce the normal transition cost for a newly acquired quarterback, but Minnesota has not officially confirmed him as Sunday's starter.

Minnesota allows a league-low 14.5 points per game, which is why the Vikings remain dangerous despite scoring only six against Buffalo. Their defense can keep this close; a functioning passing game would give it much-needed help.

Minnesota 20–19 gives us a live underdog at +3.5, with protection against a field-goal Packers win. The 39-point forecast also sits below 41.5. Whether Minnesota can turn that opportunity into a result comes back to its passing game and how quickly Cousins is ready to run it.

Totals trend: Minnesota has finished under in seven of eight games, and Green Bay in six of nine, adding a lower-scoring history to the projected 39-point total.

Out / Injured reserve: Minnesota — Josh Oliver, Demond Claiborne, Donovan Jackson, Jamal Adams, Tyler Batty. Green Bay — Josh Jacobs, Jayden Reed, Javon Hargrave, Edgerrin Cooper, Jacob Monk.

Doubtful: Minnesota — Kyler Murray.

Questionable: Minnesota — Jauan Jennings, Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins, Theo Jackson. Green Bay — MarShawn Lloyd, Micah Parsons, Zaire Franklin, Chris Brooks.

SUNDAY · 1:00 PM ET | Projected score: Carolina 26, New Orleans 25 | Market snapshot (home team): NO ML -139 · Spread -2.5 · Total 48.5

Carolina is a popular underdog, with its larger average spread wagers adding to its public support. The Panthers also attract meaningful outright support. New Orleans has nevertheless strengthened from -1.5 to -2.5, giving Carolina backers another point while moving closer to the key number of three. Carolina’s three consecutive ATS losses and 1–3 ATS record as an underdog challenge that enthusiasm. Our narrow Panthers win aligns with upset interest, but this is an underdog the public has already noticed.

Carolina’s 24.9 points per game meet a Saints defense allowing 27.0. There is room for the Panthers to score, but in a game this close, one failed red-zone possession or missed kick can decide which side of the ticket cashes.

Carolina 26–25 puts the upset in play, and the moneyline interest shows other bettors see that possibility too. At +2.5, though, a field-goal Saints win still beats us; +3 would be a meaningful improvement. The 51-point forecast sits above 48.5, but the underdog offers the clearer starting point if Carolina can rediscover its offense.

Out / Injured reserve: Carolina — Jonathon Brooks, Jaycee Horn, Mike Jackson, Nic Scourton, Taylor Moton. New Orleans — Travis Etienne Jr., Bryan Bresee, Ty Chandler, Rejzohn Wright, Dillon Radunz.

Questionable: Carolina — Xavier Legette, Jaelan Phillips, Bobby Okereke. New Orleans — CJ Donaldson.

SUNDAY · 1:00 PM ET | Projected score: Jacksonville 27, Tennessee 17 | Market snapshot (home team): TEN ML +443 · Spread +10.5 · Total 46.5

Jacksonville dominates spread support and attracts overwhelming moneyline interest. The market has moved from -7.5 to -10.5, crossing ten and raising the cost of backing a favorite that has covered four straight meetings with Tennessee and five of its last six against the AFC South. Our ten-point Jacksonville win would cover the earlier number and lose at the current price. The Titans remain deeply unpopular, but they now receive enough points to survive that projected margin.

Jacksonville allows 15.1 points per game against a Tennessee offense scoring 18.0. The Titans need enough first downs to avoid handing the Jaguars a steady supply of short fields. Jacksonville can control the game defensively and still need another touchdown to cover this spread.

Jacksonville 27–17 shows how much the move matters: the Jaguars cover −7.5 and miss −10.5 with the same performance. Tennessee now has room to lose by ten and cash. The over is attracting a greater share of money than tickets, but our 44-point forecast falls below 46.5. A slower game would help the Titans hang inside a number that has grown expensive for Jacksonville backers.

Out / Injured reserve: Jacksonville — DaVon Hamilton, Eric Murray, Anton Harrison, Zach Durfee. Tennessee — Jaren Kanak, Jaylen Harrell, James Williams Sr.

Questionable: Tennessee — Tyjae Spears, Carnell Tate, Marcus Harris, Jaylon Jones.

SUNDAY · 1:00 PM ET | Projected score: Houston 24, Cleveland 21 | Market snapshot (home team): CLE ML +191 · Spread +4.5 · Total 39.5

Houston attracts most spread tickets, while Cleveland’s money share is slightly stronger than its ticket share. Outright betting is much more concentrated on the Texans, creating potential parlay-spoiler appeal for a Browns team our forecast keeps within three. Cleveland’s 6–3 ATS record, against Houston’s 3–5, and five consecutive home covers give the home underdog a case. Houston can put up points, but Cleveland has been better at staying inside the number.

Houston produces 2.38 points per drive to Cleveland’s 1.50. The Texans have been much better at turning possessions into points, while the Browns need pressure and favorable field position to close that gap.

Houston 24–21 leaves Cleveland inside +4.5, but the Browns have to earn those 21 points. The total has risen from 38.5 to 39.5, still well below our 45. If Cleveland finishes drives instead of settling for field goals, both the home underdog and the over become more appealing.

Out / Injured reserve: Houston — Jayden Higgins, Jaylin Noel, Mario Edwards Jr., Dylan Horton, E.J. Speed. Cleveland — Teven Jenkins, Alex Wright, Damarri Mathis, Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah.

Questionable: Houston — David Montgomery, Reed Blankenship. Cleveland — Deshaun Watson, Maliek Collins.

SUNDAY · 4:05 PM ET | Projected score: Seattle 26, Las Vegas 22 | Market snapshot (home team): LV ML +234 · Spread +6.5 · Total 40.5

Larger average spread wagers favor Seattle as the Seahawks move from earlier −3.5 quotes to −6.5. That support meets a Seahawks team only 1–2 ATS on the road. Las Vegas has produced seven consecutive overs, and current over betting draws a larger share of money than tickets. Yet the total has fallen to 40.5. Fernando Mendoza’s first start after the Cousins trade changes the offense behind the Raiders’ scoring history.

Seattle allows 1.62 points per drive; Las Vegas gives up 2.73. The Seahawks should have chances to score, while the Raiders face the harder task of keeping a new quarterback on schedule against the stronger defense.

Seattle 26–22 would bring Las Vegas +6.5 home and take the game well over 40.5. But that forecast was built before Mendoza took over. Seattle has become more expensive while the total has fallen; the rookie’s ability to keep drives alive will tell us whether the Raiders can challenge both moves.

Out / Injured reserve: Seattle — Sam Darnold, Jake Bobo, Elijah Arroyo, Robbie Ouzts. Las Vegas — Patrick Johnson, Brennan Jackson, Keyron Crawford, Chigozie Anusiem.

Questionable: Seattle — Drew Lock, Rashid Shaheed, Leonard Williams, Uchenna Nwosu. Las Vegas — Thomas Booker IV.

SUNDAY · 4:05 PM ET | Projected score: Los Angeles Rams 26, Arizona 20 | Market snapshot (home team): ARI ML +345 · Spread +9.5 · Total 39.5

The Rams attract most spread tickets and an even greater share of the money, accompanying their move from -7.5 to -9.5. Moneyline support is heavily concentrated on Los Angeles despite Arizona winning the first meeting 18–16. Arizona’s own weaknesses explain some of that skepticism: the Cardinals are 0–3 ATS at home and face a second consecutive NFC West opponent after losing 17–3 at Seattle. The rematch tests whether familiarity can keep Arizona competitive at a larger price.

Los Angeles allows 20.1 points per game to Arizona’s 28.3, giving the Rams the stronger defensive foundation. Covering −9.5 on the road still requires them to turn those stops into touchdowns. Field goals leave the back door open.

The Rams 26–20 leaves Arizona inside +9.5 and takes the game over 39.5. Under support is only slightly stronger than over support, so there is no overwhelming totals consensus to follow. The common thread is Arizona’s offense: enough production to reach 20 would give the Cardinals a chance to cover and lift the game above this low total.

Out / Injured reserve: Los Angeles Rams — Davante Adams, Jaylen Watson, Poona Ford, Kobie Turner, Blake Grupe. Arizona — Trey Benson, James Conner, Jeremiyah Love, Michael Wilson, Kendrick Bourne, Will Johnson.

Doubtful: Los Angeles Rams — Puka Nacua.

Questionable: Los Angeles Rams — Trent McDuffie, Terrance Ferguson. Arizona — Bam Knight, Roy Lopez.

SUNDAY · 4:25 PM ET | Projected score: San Francisco 27, Dallas 23 | Market snapshot (home team): DAL ML +176 · Spread +4 · Total 55.5

San Francisco dominates moneyline betting and attracts most spread action, leaving Dallas as a potential spoiler for favorite-heavy parlays. The 49ers are 7–1 outright but 5–3 ATS, and they won and covered the January 2022 and January 2023 playoff meetings plus the October 2023 and October 2024 regular-season meetings. Over bettors are also piling in, with larger average wagers adding to the ticket support. The move from 52.5 to 55.5 raises the bar for a game we expect to finish lower.

San Francisco averages 29.4 points and Dallas 27.3, making the attraction of the over easy to understand. But San Francisco’s defense also gets a say, and a few long drives ending in field goals could leave 55.5 out of reach.

San Francisco 27–23 lands exactly on the four-point spread, leaving little reason to force a side. The better opportunity to investigate is under 55.5, with our forecast stopping at 50. The public and the larger totals wagers favor more scoring, but another 49ers win can come through sustained drives and defensive stops without becoming a shootout.

Out / Injured reserve: San Francisco — Christian Kirk, Ricky Pearsall, Isaac Guerendo, Jake Tonges. Dallas — Jake Ferguson, Tyler Goodson, Malachi Lawrence, Jalen Thompson.

Questionable: San Francisco — Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel, Renardo Green, Nate Hobbs, Deommodore Lenoir. Dallas — George Pickens, KaVontae Turpin, Luke Schoonmaker, DeMarvion Overshown.

SUNDAY · 8:20 PM ET | Projected score: Cincinnati 24, Pittsburgh 23 | Market snapshot (home team): CIN ML -187 · Spread -3.5 · Total 49.5

Cincinnati attracts most spread tickets and money, but -3.5 has held. Pittsburgh’s small moneyline ticket share comes with a larger money share, showing some bigger average wagers behind an outright Steelers upset. Pittsburgh has won and covered four straight and is 2–1 outright and ATS against the AFC North. Its last opponent was Cleveland, followed by a Week 9 bye before this divisional rematch. The first Cincinnati meeting ended in a 30–27 Steelers win.

Pittsburgh allows only 83.9 rushing yards per game, pushing Cincinnati toward the passing attack that generates 298.3 yards a week. The Bengals have the production to challenge this defense; protection will decide how often they can use it.

Cincinnati 24–23 keeps Pittsburgh comfortably inside +3.5. Even a field-goal Bengals win would get the Steelers home, making that extra half-point valuable in a familiar matchup. The total has climbed from 47.5 to 49.5 while our forecast stops at 47, giving us more reason to examine the under than chase the move higher.

Out / Injured reserve: Pittsburgh — Michael Pittman Jr., Roman Wilson, Derrick Harmon, Sebastian Joseph-Day. Cincinnati — Andrei Iosivas, Erick All Jr., Tanner Hudson, Cashius Howell.

Questionable: Pittsburgh — Ben Skowronek, Brandin Echols. Cincinnati — Kyle Dugger.

MONDAY · 8:15 PM ET | Projected score: Baltimore 24, Los Angeles Chargers 20 | Market snapshot (home team): BAL ML -219 · Spread -4.5 · Total 38.5

The Chargers attract a slight majority of spread action, while Baltimore is the more popular outright winner. Los Angeles’ small moneyline ticket share comes with a larger share of the money, adding some larger-wager interest to the upset side. That is a difficult position to support on recent results: the Chargers are 0–8 outright, 0–7–1 ATS, and Baltimore won and covered the 2021, 2023 and 2024 meetings. Bettors are backing Baltimore to win while leaving room for another close finish.

The Chargers average a league-low 1.26 points per drive, but Baltimore allows 2.38. There is an opening against this defense. Los Angeles has to turn it into touchdowns instead of another afternoon of empty possessions.

Baltimore 24–20 leaves little room at Chargers +4.5, but the total is a different conversation. The drop from 47.5 to 38.5 puts our 44-point forecast above the market. Most totals tickets favor the over, although the money is less enthusiastic. Los Angeles needs to finish drives better than it has all season for that scoring opportunity to pay.

Out / Injured reserve: Los Angeles Chargers — Derwin James Jr., Alec Ingold, Trey Lance. Baltimore — Lamar Jackson, Tyler Huntley, Tyler Loop, Tavius Robinson, Durham Smythe.

Questionable: Los Angeles Chargers — Justin Herbert, David Njoku, Denzel Perryman, Cam Hart. Baltimore — Kyle Hamilton, Jaylinn Hawkins, Nate Wiggins.

Where the spreads give us room: Minnesota +3.5 offers the largest gap against our forecast, followed by Carolina +2.5 and Arizona +9.5. Pittsburgh, Miami, Las Vegas and the Jets can also lose close games and still cover. Kansas City −3.5 asks the favorite to finish a little further clear.

Where the scoring differs: Our forecasts run above the posted totals in Seattle–Las Vegas, Miami–Indianapolis, Rams–Arizona, Washington–Giants, Chargers–Baltimore and Houston–Cleveland. San Francisco–Dallas offers the opposite case, with 50 projected against 55.5. Seattle–Las Vegas needs particular care after the quarterback change. These comparisons are research angles; official picks are issued separately.