THE EDGE REPORT by AndActionBTB | Wednesday, November 11, 2026
Edmonton has the strongest projected margin on tonight’s six-game board. Calgary is our underdog lean, Anaheim has the rest advantage, and Vegas is available at a cheaper price with a key defenseman missing. Here is where our scoring projections agree with the market, and where the price asks too much.
Tampa Bay at Buffalo | Projected: Tampa Bay 3.4, Buffalo 3.1
7:00 p.m. ET | Moneyline: BUF +110 / TB −131
Puck line: BUF +1.5 (−225) / TB −1.5 (+180)
Total 6.5: Over (−116) / Under (−103)
Point’s Absence Keeps Buffalo in the Game
Tampa Bay has the stronger attack, but the road version has been far less secure defensively. The Lightning have allowed 4.11 goals per road game, compared with 3.12 overall. Buffalo has scored just 2.33 per game at home. That puts the matchup between Tampa’s road vulnerability and Buffalo’s ability to exploit it.
Brayden Point’s absence takes a top offensive center out of Tampa’s lineup. Nikita Kucherov and Jake Guentzel still give the Lightning dangerous finishing options, but Buffalo can concentrate more attention on the remaining threats. Tampa holds the higher moneyline handle, while its ticket share is even larger.
Our 6.5-goal projection lands directly on the total. There is no meaningful scoring cushion behind the over support. Tampa remains the straight-up lean; Buffalo’s +1.5 offers protection in the close game our numbers describe.
Injuries
Tampa Bay — Out/IR: Brayden Point (undisclosed).
Buffalo — Out/IR: Alex Lyon (shoulder), Matt Grzelcyk (lower body), Justin Danforth (upper body), Konsta Helenius (upper body).
New York Rangers at Calgary | Projected: Calgary 3.1, New York 2.9
7:30 p.m. ET | Moneyline: CGY +118 / NYR −140
Puck line: CGY +1.5 (−219) / NYR −1.5 (+178)
Total 5.5: Over (−122) / Under (+101)
Calgary’s Home Offense Challenges the Favorite
New York’s road scoring is the problem behind the favorite price: 1.89 goals per game away from home. Calgary is producing 3.30 at the Saddledome. The Flames’ home scoring and New York’s 3.56 road goals allowed pull our projection narrowly toward Calgary despite moneyline support for the Rangers.
Igor Shesterkin remains unavailable, and the absences of Sean Durzi and Alberts Smits leave New York thinner on defense. Calgary is missing Kevin Bahl and Jonathan Huberdeau, but its offensive production at home gives the underdog a credible route to win: sustain pressure and force New York to chase.
Calgary at +118 is our underdog lean. The projected six-goal game also favors over 5.5, where six goals cash. The half-goal difference is useful, though −122 leaves less room than the line alone suggests.
Injuries
Rangers — Out/IR: Igor Shesterkin (lower body), Sean Durzi (lower body), Alberts Smits (upper body), Joseph Veleno (lower body), Adam Sykora (lower body).
Calgary — Out/IR: Kevin Bahl (Achilles), Jonathan Huberdeau (hip), Samuel Honzek (lower body).
Philadelphia at Edmonton | Projected: Edmonton 3.5, Philadelphia 2.6
9:00 p.m. ET | Moneyline: EDM −210 / PHI +172
Puck line: EDM −1.5 (+116) / PHI +1.5 (−142)
Total 6.5: Over (+110) / Under (−134)
The Money Has Moved Toward Edmonton. The Matchup Explains Why.
Edmonton opened around −200 and traded to −220 as heavy ticket volume and money backed the Oilers. The available −210 gives back part of that move. The support has a clear hockey foundation: Edmonton averages 4.11 goals per game, while Philadelphia manages only 1.90 on the road.
The Oilers can force the Flyers to defend repeated possessions rather than trade isolated rushes. Leon Draisaitl comes in off a two-goal game, and Edmonton has gone 6–2–2 over its last ten. Philadelphia’s best resistance is to slow the exits, protect the middle and keep the Oilers off the power play.
Our projection favors Edmonton by 0.9 goals, making the moneyline our preferred way to back the favorite. The 6.1-goal forecast sits below 6.5 even though over money dominates. Under 6.5 is the scoring lean; −134 is the price of that protection.
Our tracked favorite-steam sample went 10–4 straight up across 14 games from September 29 through October 19. Edmonton combines the favorite-side market push with the strongest projected scoring margin on tonight’s board.
Injuries
Philadelphia — Out: Nikita Grebenkin (back). Status watch: Rasmus Ristolainen (upper body; practicing after an extended absence).
Edmonton — Out/IR: Frederik Andersen, Alec Regula, Mattias Janmark, Matthew Savoie, Isaac Howard. Day to day: Colton Dach (illness).
Utah at Vegas | Projected: Vegas 3.5, Utah 3.1
9:30 p.m. ET | Moneyline: VGK −122 / UTA +105
Puck line: VGK −1.5 (+192) / UTA +1.5 (−235)
Total 6.5: Over (−105) / Under (−115)
Vegas Gets Cheaper With a Key Defenseman Missing
Vegas has the higher moneyline handle, yet the price has eased from the listed −141 opener into the low −120s. Noah Hanifin’s absence is central to the matchup. Utah has enough scoring to test the reshuffled defense: the Mammoth average 3.25 goals on the road.
Vegas answers with 3.78 goals per home game. Utah has allowed 3.50 per road game, so the Golden Knights should have chances of their own. The projected 3.5–3.1 margin keeps Vegas in front, but it also shows why Utah’s offense cannot be dismissed at plus money.
Vegas moneyline is the lean at the reduced price. The 6.6-goal forecast gives the over almost no separation from 6.5. Hanifin’s absence and Dylan Guenther’s availability are more consequential to this matchup than following the over simply because it has the higher handle.
Injuries
Utah — Out/IR: John Marino, Nate Schmidt, Maveric Lamoureux, Kailer Yamamoto. Day to day: Dylan Guenther.
Vegas — Out: Noah Hanifin. Return watch: Parker Wotherspoon (upper body).
Nashville at Anaheim | Projected: Anaheim 3.4, Nashville 3.4
10:00 p.m. ET | Moneyline: ANA −141 / NSH +118
Puck line: ANA −1.5 (+164) / NSH +1.5 (−199)
Total 6.5: Over (−124) / Under (+104)
Rest and Terry’s Return Meet Nashville’s Five-Game Run
Nashville arrives on a five-game winning streak after Tuesday’s 3–0 shutout in Los Angeles. Anaheim has rested since Sunday. The Predators face a quick turnaround against a Ducks team averaging 3.88 goals at home, with Troy Terry expected to make his season debut.
Terry’s return would add another established playmaker to an attack already driven by Cutter Gauthier’s finishing. Nashville’s challenge is maintaining its defensive structure on the second night of a back-to-back. Juuse Saros worked Tuesday; the starting-goalie decision will shape how much weight his shutout carries into this game.
The scoring baseline is almost even at 3.4 goals apiece. Anaheim’s rest advantage and Terry’s expected return give the Ducks our situational lean, but the projection does not support laying a wide margin. Nashville remains dangerous against an Anaheim team allowing 4.13 goals per home game.
Our 6.8-goal forecast leans over 6.5, with limited room at −124. Anaheim has drawn the higher moneyline handle and shortened from the listed −125 opener, but the price near −141 remains below a 20-cent move.
Injuries
Anaheim — Out/IR: Ryan Poehling, A.J. Greer, Ian Moore. Expected return: Troy Terry (hip; season debut anticipated).
Nashville — Out: William Trudeau. Day to day: Jonathan Marchessault (lower body).
Pittsburgh at San Jose | Projected: Pittsburgh 3.3, San Jose 3.1
10:00 p.m. ET | Moneyline: SJ +116 / PIT −140
Puck line: SJ +1.5 (−210) / PIT −1.5 (+171)
Total 6.5: Over (−135) / Under (+112)
Pittsburgh’s Attack Travels. So Does Its Defensive Risk.
Pittsburgh scores 3.40 goals per road game—and allows 4.10. That is the tension behind backing the Penguins away from home. San Jose has scored only 2.33 per home game, leaving the Sharks to turn Pittsburgh’s defensive lapses into better finishing than they have usually produced.
The Penguins have won seven of the last ten meetings and four of their last five visits to San Jose. Bryan Rust’s absence removes an important finisher, but Pittsburgh still has the higher moneyline handle. The price has moved from the listed −125 opener toward −140.
Our projection gives Pittsburgh only a 0.2-goal advantage. That is a thin margin for paying −140, so this is a pass on the side at the listed price. The 6.4-goal forecast also leaves little separation from 6.5. San Jose’s +112 under price is more appealing than paying −135 to follow the over money.
Injuries
Pittsburgh — Out/IR: Bryan Rust (lower body), Ryan Graves (knee), Trevor van Riemsdyk (lower body).
San Jose — IR: Igor Chernyshov (upper body).
Where We Stand Tonight
Favorite: Edmonton moneyline. The Oilers have the largest projected scoring advantage, and −210 is a better entry than the −220 already traded.
Underdog: Calgary +118. The Flames’ home scoring and New York’s road struggles put our projection on the opposite side of the favorite price.
Situational lean: Anaheim moneyline. Rest and Terry’s expected return break a near-even scoring matchup toward the Ducks.
Total: Edmonton–Philadelphia under 6.5 is our preferred under at a 6.1 forecast. Calgary–New York over 5.5 is the alternative, with six projected goals. Neither forecast is a reason to ignore the price.
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