October 24 • Early prelims: 10 a.m. ET • Main card: 2 p.m. ET. Both championship fights are scheduled for five rounds; the remaining bouts are three rounds.
These are matchup assessments and markets to research, not a finalized betting slip. A plausible outcome still needs the right price.
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev
The central question is whether Evloev can turn his wrestling entries into sustained control. Volkanovski’s route is to defend the initial shot, escape subsequent attempts, and make Evloev pay during resets with cleaner combinations. Evloev needs repeated pressure, mat returns and enough offense to make his control count. UFC’s preview highlights that clash between Volkanovski’s complete game and Evloev’s persistent wrestling.
Markets to examine: Evloev ML or decision; fight goes the distance; over 3.5 or 4.5 rounds. Decision markets fit the projected wrestling battle better than forcing a submission prediction.
Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili
Yan needs space to establish his boxing, punish entries and turn defensive wrestling into scoring opportunities. Merab’s route is to deny those comfortable stretches through constant movement, level changes and repeated takedown attempts. Their previous meetings show how differently this matchup can unfold depending on Yan’s ability to resist the wrestling pressure.
Markets to examine: Yan ML or decision; fight goes the distance; over 4.5 rounds. Merab’s decision price is the alternative if you expect him to dictate pace and positioning. Avoid treating correlated outcomes as independent parlay legs.
Lone’er Kavanagh vs. Ramazan Temirov
Kavanagh’s cleaner route is disciplined distance management: sharp counters, kicks and lateral exits before Temirov can turn exchanges into a firefight. Temirov wants the opposite—pressure, explosive combinations and exchanges where his power can interrupt Kavanagh’s rhythm.
Markets to examine: Kavanagh ML or decision; Temirov KO/TKO; fight does not go the distance. The distance market becomes more attractive if neither fighter consistently controls where exchanges happen. The method markets represent competing fight scripts, rather than wagers to automatically combine.
Alexander Volkov vs. Rizvan Kuniev
Volkov needs to maintain range with straight punches and kicks, forcing Kuniev to cross distance repeatedly. Kuniev’s route is to crowd that length, pressure toward the fence and work with short punches and knees. His last fight ended with a third-round TKO over Tyrell Fortune, but that result alone does not establish an early finish against Volkov.
Markets to examine: Volkov decision; over 1.5 or 2.5 rounds; fight goes the distance. Kuniev’s ML belongs on the comparison board, but this is a lower-priority matchup for us. An automatic heavyweight under would overlook the possibility of a prolonged clinch-and-distance battle.
Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita
Pico’s path is to make this a wrestling fight before Keita can establish timing. Safe entries, fence pressure and top control can limit the striking exchanges. Keita needs to punish Pico’s approach, maintain separation and find counters when Pico commits.
Markets to examine: Keita ML or KO/TKO; Pico decision if you expect sustained control; fight does not go the distance. Keita’s knockout route is appealing stylistically, but a method bet sacrifices the protection of winning another way.
Dominick Reyes vs. Azamat Murzakanov
Reyes needs to use his length, keep his feet moving and make Murzakanov reach into straight counters. Murzakanov’s path is to close distance patiently and exploit openings with fast, damaging punches. Reyes can still threaten offensively, which makes this more volatile than a straightforward favorite-versus-underdog matchup.
Markets to examine: Murzakanov ML or KO/TKO; fight does not go the distance; under 2.5 rounds. Compare the price of a Murzakanov finish with the two-sided finish market, Reyes also has a route to ending it.
Nikita Krylov vs. Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev
Yakhyaev wants another fast start: pressure, powerful strikes and immediate transitions if Krylov gives up his neck or back. Krylov’s opportunity is to survive the opening surge, create complicated grappling exchanges and force Yakhyaev into a longer fight. The prospect’s efficient finishes are impressive, but his response to extended adversity remains less established.
Markets to examine: Yakhyaev inside the distance; fight does not go the distance; under 1.5 rounds. Compare KO/TKO and submission prices before choosing a method. Inside the distance preserves both finishing routes. A very short ML price is not automatically a useful parlay addition.
Abus Magomedov vs. Cam Rowston
Magomedov’s path is to establish his offense early, mix striking with takedowns and secure positions that reduce Rowston’s opportunities to build pressure. Rowston needs to defend intelligently through that opening phase, make Magomedov work and increase his output as the fight develops. Published scouting identifies Magomedov’s early offense and wrestling as the immediate challenge for Rowston.
Markets to examine: Magomedov inside the distance or submission; Rowston decision or later-round finish; live ML after assessing the first round. Our matchup assessment and the previously reviewed handle/line-movement signals disagree here. That conflict argues against forcing a pre-fight ML position.
Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev
This could turn on who wins the second and third wrestling exchanges. Aliev needs to resist Dawson’s entries, reverse position and establish his own top control. Dawson’s route is to chain attempts together, create scrambles and convert positional advances into back control or submission opportunities. Aliev’s wrestling has been effective, but Dawson represents a meaningful test.
Markets to examine: Aliev ML or decision; over 2.5 rounds; fight goes the distance. Dawson submission is the alternative if you expect his transitions to decide the fight. Two grapplers do not automatically produce a submission—or a striking stalemate.
Colby Thicknesse vs. Asaf Chopurov
Chopurov’s route is to impose his stronger offensive phases: pressure, forceful grappling and finishing opportunities during transitions. Thicknesse needs disciplined defense, clean exits and enough scrambling success to keep the newcomer from settling into control. His best opportunity may come from extending the fight and making Chopurov solve unfamiliar problems.
Markets to examine: Chopurov inside the distance or submission; under 2.5 rounds. Over 1.5 is worth comparing if the early-finish expectation makes that price attractive. Winning likelihood and betting value are different questions, especially with a heavily priced favorite.
Abubakar Vagaev vs. Jacob Malkoun
Malkoun needs sustained activity, repeated wrestling exchanges and enough striking to prevent Vagaev from controlling every entry. Vagaev’s route is to impose his physicality, win close-range positions and keep Malkoun working underneath or against the fence. This looks more naturally suited to a positional contest than an automatic finish hunt.
Markets to examine: Malkoun ML or decision; over 2.5 rounds; fight goes the distance. Vagaev decision fits the opposing control-based script. Malkoun’s underdog price deserves attention, but the money-flow disagreement remains part of the assessment.
Bolaji Oki vs. Daniel Santos
Santos wants sustained pressure and combinations that make Oki defend repeatedly. Oki needs to use his reach, land clean counters and avoid being trapped in extended exchanges. Both have defensive vulnerabilities, while Oki’s move down in weight adds another variable to how he handles the pace. Oki’s previous loss could also have a lingering effect, particularly if it affects his confidence, durability or willingness to engage under sustained pressure.
Markets to examine: Santos ML or KO/TKO; fight does not go the distance; under 2.5 rounds. The two-sided finish market protects against Oki landing the decisive counter. Assess the weight cut and the possible lingering impact of Oki’s previous loss before assuming Oki’s size advantage translates into durability.
Kody Steele vs. Noah Gugnon
Steele’s route is pressure into grappling, positional advances and submission attacks. Gugnon needs to make entries costly, create damaging exchanges and capitalize on scrambles. Both enter after first-round submission victories, which makes this an interesting finish-market matchup even though our overall assessment produces no clear side.
Markets to examine: Fight does not go the distance; under 2.5 rounds; either fighter by submission if offered. No Edge / No Play remains our directional position. A possible totals opportunity requires its own price assessment.
Iasmin Lucindo vs. Nicolle Caliari
Lucindo needs to dictate the striking exchanges, defend entries and use her physicality to control where the fight takes place. Caliari’s clearest route is to bring the fight into prolonged grappling exchanges and create submission opportunities. Her substantial weight miss adds uncertainty; it is not evidence that either fighter automatically gains an advantage. The bout is proceeding at catchweight.
Markets to examine: Lucindo ML or decision; over 2.5 rounds; fight goes the distance. Caliari submission is her clearest alternative method angle. The weight issue makes this a matchup to reassess carefully before committing.
The Edge approach: identify the likely winning route, choose the market that captures it, and demand a price that compensates for what can go wrong. Final wagers and unit sizes belong on a separate betting card.
ITD means inside the distance: a fighter wins before the final bell. Fight does not go the distance covers either fighter finishing; settlement rules for unusual outcomes vary by sportsbook.
